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RUSSIA
From June 19 to June 25, 2018, consumer sugar prices in Russia increased by 0.6%, and from the beginning of the year (by the end of December 2017) - by 12.9%, according to Rosstat.
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According to Sugar.ru price monitoring data for the period from 21.06.2018 to 27.06.2018 the US dollar rate dropped by -1,3% (on 21.06 - RUR 63,62/$, on 27.06 - RUR 62,79/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 0,80 RUR/kg (-2,37%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 0,50 RUR/kg (-1,56%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0,005 /kg (-0,94%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0,001 /kg (-0,20%).
The World Cup continues, and the closer to the final, the less news comes from the sugar market.
Last week, the wholesale price of sugar fell slightly. Russian companies have split in two parties: they believe in the prospect of a high price before the new season (Prodimex, Dominant, ...), and which believe that it will only get worse (Rusagro). Despite all attempts to raise the price in the market by the first group of companies, the situation was dictated by the second group, which keeps low prices. True, today, on June 28, Rusagro has raised wholesale prices by RUR 0.50/kg (with sales level of 30.50 - 31.00 rubles per kilo), apparently having decided that it had found the bottom at around 30 rubles per kilo. The situation in the market continues to be significantly affected by the shortage of railway cars for sugar transportation, which, to some extent, discredits the declared prices for rail delivery, is there any price difference when you buy sugar from the plant and you do not know when it will be received?
Export of sugar continues to be low, from the beginning of June, only 14.4 thousand tons of white sugar was exported by rail (almost 16.2 thousand tons in May), almost all volume went to Kazakhstan. The transit of white sugar by the Russian railways to the countries of Central Asia and Azerbaijan remains stable, thus, from the beginning of June Ukraine delivered 38.7 thousand tons of sugar (in May only – 48.9 thousand tons), Belarus – 7, 7 thousand tons (in May only – 14.9 thousand tons). Two steamships with raw sugar for Kazakhstan continue to "rest" in the port of Novorossiysk, and whose captains may already apply for Russian citizenship based on the total time spent on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Weighing up all these factors: problems with the transportation of sugar to the eastern regions of the Russian Federation and the supply of raw sugar to Kazakhstan, as well as deteriorating expectations for the harvest of the new season (we wrote about it in our previous review), you can make a cautious assumption that the price of sugar can go up in the beginning of the new season. It does not matter what the balances are at the beginning of the season, but competition for limited logistic supply capabilities can lead to higher prices.
UKRAINE
According to the results of foreign trade in January-May, 2018, Ukraine exported 259.85 thousand tons of sugar for total value of $ 101.56 million. The main importers of Ukrainian sugar in January-May were Uzbekistan ($ 42.4 million), Turkey ($ 15.14 million) and Great Britain ($ 8.48 million). Exports to these countries amounted to 108.49 thousand tons, 38.74 thousand tons and 21.69 thousand tons of sugar, respectively, according to the Ukrainian press.
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