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RUSSIA
Russia may reduce sugar production to 5.8 million tons in the agricultural year 2017/2018 from 6.09 million tons in current agricultural year, predicts Eugene Ivanov (ICAR). Forecast for the next agricultural year is based primarily on the fact that sugar beet crops will decrease by 4.5%, to 1.06 million hectares. Exports are estimated at 199 000 tons, rather than at 150 000 tons, a month earlier. Factory inventories, according to ICAR, jumped to historically record level of 1.95 million tons at the end of November (compared to 1.76 million tons a year earlier).
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From the beginning of January 2017, consumer prices for sugar decreased by 2.6%, according to Rosstat.
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According to the data of price monitoring by Sugar.ru, for the period from January 26 to February 02, 2017, the dollar exchange rate increased by 2.0% (on Jan 26 - 59.15 rubles/$; on February 02 - 60.31 rubles/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price of sugar fell by RUR 0.05/kg (-0.16%), Krasnodar wholesale price increased by RUR 0.70/kg (+ 2.37%). US Dollar Moscow wholesale price of sugar fell by $ 0.011/kg (-2.10%), Krasnodar wholesale price increased by $ 0.002/kg (+ 0.40%).
Sugar prices, frightened by a sharp fall to 28.80 rubles/kg, are trying to increase prices from the end of the week. A kind of consensus of producers was formed of those who refuse to sell at extremely low prices, and keeping offer as high as 31 rubles/kg. Probably, RUR 28.5-31.5/kg (basis Krasnodar) is the closest corridor, which will enclose the price aimed to bounce between extreme values.
According to Rosstat stocks of sugar in the wholesale trade (previously acquired for resale from somewhere) has increased to 104 777.9 tons in December 2016 (+24.37% vs. the previous month and +4.57% for 12 months). Stable low inventories of wholesalers represent a new strategy in the Russian market, where, amid the unprecedented fall in prices, brokers are not prepared to take risks, buying large amounts of sugar for the future, preferring to sell them virtually "from rolling wheels."
Exports by railway cars amounted to 21,100 tons in January (in December 2016- 27 700 tons).
UKRAINE
Agropromholding "Astarta-Kyiv" increased the sales of sugar by 8%, from 362 610 tons in 2015 to 390 150 tons in 2016, according to a company statement. The average consumer price of sugar has increased by 24% to UAH 11930/MT.
BELARUS
Starting from November 2016 the National Statistical Committee has ceased publishing data on exports of sugar and raw sugar (HS group 1701). The monthly production volume report lacks the line with data for "sugar". Sugar.Ru has inquired the National Statistical Committee on hidden data and receive explanations stating that "the trade data for commodity listed under EAEC HS code 1701 group are confidential."
KAZAKHSTAN
According the National Statistical Committee, the consumer prices for sugar decreased by 0.8% in January 2017, and increased by 12.4% Y2Y (vs. December 2016).
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