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RUSSIA
According to Sugar.ru price monitoring data for the period from 01.11.2018 to 08.11.2018 the US dollar rate increased by 0.8% (on 01.11 - RUR 65.60/$, on 08.11 - RUR 66.09/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 0.90 RUR/kg (-2.26%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 1.00 RUR/kg (-2.67%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0.018 /kg (-2.96%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0.020 /kg (-3.50%).
Last week wholesale prices for sugar have slightly declined, but on Wednesday and Thursday the fall intensified. The processing season is coming to an end and it is already clear that there will be no shortage of sugar. Additionally, one of the reasons for the decline of prices is a shortage of railway cars, forcing factories to dump values having warehouses filled up with sugar. Some factories and traders offer sugar at a price below the market by RUR 1/kg, but under the condition of sugar export during the day. There are no any solid reasons to cause the price of sugar to change significantly in any direction. In the long run, low demand may work for lowering prices on the eve of the New Year and in the first winter months, on another hand, expectations of the next sanctions and, accordingly, the fall of the ruble exchange rate following the sanctions, to increase in prices.
According to Soyuzrossahar, by November 1, 2018, 24 million tons of sugar beet were processed, from which 3.56 million tons of white sugar was received. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, it is possible to anticipate the total harvest of sugar beet of 40.59 million tons. With the current beet sugar production yield of around 15.47%, taking into account the losses of late beets and the thinning sugar content of beets in piles, it can be assumed that the total sugar production in the 2018/19 season will be no less than 5.83 million tons, excluding desalinization of molasses (+ 60-80 thousand tons of white sugar), a total of about 5.9 million tons.
According to Sugar.Ru railway monitoring data, in 8 days of November 2018, Russia imported 7.5 thousand tons of white sugar, all from Belarus. White sugar exports by rail dropped sharply in November and from the beginning of the month amounted to mere 2.2 thousand tons, most of it to Kazakhstan. The rate of white sugar transit by the Russian rail continues to grow, for 8 days in November transit amounted to 17.4 thousand tons, despite the fact that 57 thousand tons were already transported in October, and 22.3 thousand tons in September. The main supplier of transit sugar is Ukraine (13.8 thousand tons, of which 11.2 thousand tons to Uzbekistan).
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According to Soyuzrossahar, as of November 6, 2018, total acreage harvested has made 1052.4 thousand hectares (93.4% of the area under crops), with an average yield of 37.0 MT/ha.
UKRAINE
According to Sugar.Ru railway monitoring data, Ukraine has exported 38.7 thousand tons of white sugar transit Russia in October 2018. The main receiver of Ukrainian sugar was Azerbaijan (27.5 thousand tons).
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