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RUSSIA
According to Sugar.ru price monitoring data for the period from 30.05.2019 to 06.06.2019 the US dollar rate increased by 0,3% (on 30.05 - RUR 64,91/$, on 06.06 - RUR 65,12/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 1,20 RUR/kg (-3,87%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 2,00 RUR/kg (-7,14%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0,020 /kg (-4,18%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0,032 /kg (-7,42%).
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Last week, the price drop continued and took on a panic character. Today, in the morning of June 6, Rusagro offered sugar at the wholesale price of 26 rubles/kg by phone, and in the afternoon came out with this price to the exchange. The rest of the market participants are in turmoil: selling at “Rusagro price” is difficult, first, by this time the price of Rusagro becomes even lower, and secondly, buyers are waiting for further decline and are not in a hurry to say farewell to money bills.
A question that concerns everyone in the market: where is the bottom and will there be a rebound. The “bottom” is more or less clear, we have passed the first level of export parity (26 rubles /kg), when it is cheaper for the countries of the former USSR to buy Russian sugar than to import raw sugar. In any case, one steamer with raw sugar, previously nominated for Kazakhstan, eventually left for Algeria. Nevertheless, one more ship (27,500 tons) continues to unload raws at the port for receiver in Kazakhstan and another is approaching (37,550 tons); as for the latter, there is no exact data on final destinations. Good crop views, provisionally - 6.4 million tons, by no means contribute to optimism. With current low price long before the start of the new season there are risks to get a price rally during the harvest of sugar beet, which would be good for beet growers, but for a number of sugar companies that have been fixing the high cost of white sugar for the second year running (beet is purchased based on current prices sugar) this season may be the last one.
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According to Sugar.Ru railway monitoring, for 6 days of June, Russia imported 490 tons of white sugar (in May 11.6 thousand tons only). Sugar imports from Ukraine continue to Kaliningrad, from the beginning of June, deliveries amounted to 136 tons (in May, a total of 1,016 tons of Ukrainian sugar were imported). Export in 6 days amounted to 3.0 thousand tons (in May - 20.8 thousand tons) all to Kazakhstan. The transit of white sugar via the Russian railway amounted to 7.8 thousand tons (in May only 25.3 thousand tons), including 2.9 thousand tons to Azerbaijan and 2.0 thousand tons to Tajikistan.
CUSTOMS UNION
The duty on import of raw sugar to the Customs Union remains at $ 250/MT in June 2019. The average monthly price for raw sugar at the ICE stock exchange was $ 260.56/MT in May 2019, respectively, the import duty in July 2019 will remain at the level - $ 250/MT.
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