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RUSSIA
The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a decline in the sugar beet harvest in the season 2018/19 up to 24%, as stated in the report of the Ministry on the results of activities in 2017.
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According to Sugar.ru price monitoring data for the period from 05.04.2018 to 12.04.2018 the US dollar rate increased by 11,0% (on 05.04 - RUR 57,76/$, on 12.04 - RUR 64,06/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar increased by 1,90 RUR/kg (+6,21%), Krasnodar wholesale price increased by 1,80 RUR/kg (+6,21%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0,023 /kg (-4,34%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0,021 /kg (-4,18%).
Stabilized wholesale sugar prices, after growing last week, gave way to an agitated growth this week. The sanctions imposed by the US against a number of Russian businessmen and their companies, including their partners, have caused a sharp drop of ruble value and stock exchange rates. In this situation, regional companies and speculators decided not to wait for the further development of bad news, but to buy sugar for future use. Manufacturers reported sales of several thousand tons of sugar per day. By the end of the week, when the secondary market have accumulated significant volumes, demand for sugar began to decline, but this did not affect the price uptrend. Regional buyers temporarily stopped buying and rush to fix their profits. If there is not another cataclysm with Syria and the dollar, we will probably see a stop, or even a rollback from the level of 32 rubles per kg.
The forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture states the reduction of the sugar beet harvest by 24% compared to previous season, contributes to further price growth, but at current moment such an estimate seems to be just another unreasonable speculation. Still it is not clear even how much the sown areas will decrease, and it is simply not meaningful to predict the yield with six months ahead.
According to railway monitoring data by Sugar.Ru, exports continue to fall, in 12 days of April, only 7.8 thousand tons were exported by rail (0 tons to Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan). At the same time, Ukrainian exports to Uzbekistan are on the rise - 12.9 thousand tons since the beginning of the month (in January only 14.98 thousand tons, in March - 22 thousand tons). The fall in the ruble exchange rate may make Russian sugar again competitive in the markets of Azerbaijan and Central Asia, but the increase in wholesale prices can offset this advantage.
UKRAINE
7 regions of Ukraine have started sugar beet sowing campaign, as of April 11, 13 thousand hectares was planted, which is 4% to the forecasted 302 thousand hectares, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy says.
KAZAKHSTAN
Zhambyl agrarians started sowing sugar beet, According to the regional data, 10.2 thousand hectares are to be sown (in 9017 - 9 thousand hectares).
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