Sugar price monitoring in Russia for the period from 25.04.2019 to 16.05.2019 and news from Kazakhstan and Ukraine, May 16, 2019

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RUSSIA

According to Sugar.Ru price monitoring data for the period from 25.04.2019 to 16.05.2019 the US dollar rate increased by 1,4% (on 25.04 - RUR 63,98/$, on 16.05 - RUR 64,85/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 2,40 RUR/kg (-6,98%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 2,20 RUR/kg
(-6,83%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0,045 /kg (-8,36%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0,040 /kg (-7,95%).

Some dramatic events took place in the market in these long holidays and short weekdays, the price of even average wholesale batches of sugar fell below 30 rubles/kg, the last time the price was that low in the middle of September last year. The expectations of many market participants that the deferred demand will be emerge and the price will go up after the long May holidays, are not being justified so far. The last two days the price drops several times a day at NTB, at the time of writing these lines, it has reached a value of 29.30 rubles / kg. The main driver of price reduction at NTB is Rusagro, however, Dominant has its finger in this decline pie, dropping the price immediately by 0.2 rubles / kg and selling sugar for 30.00 rubles / kg ( to be fair, we should note that this was a large wholesale transaction). Outside the exchange, trading also goes at the level of 29.50 rubles / kg.

After a long period of relatively high prices, this fall seems to be temporary, but it is not possible to confirm this abstract feeling with actual figures, without knowing the real commodity stocks of the leading sugar companies. The fall can be caused both by the pressure of stocks (and the prospect of a good harvest at the moment), and the game of large companies aimed to wash away smaller participants from the market prior to the subsequent rise in prices before the new season (with all the uncertainty of such growth).

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According to Sugar.Ru railway monitoring, in the first half of May Russia has imported only 8.7 thousand tons of white sugar, which is lower than the monthly average of the last months (22-27 thousand tons per month). Since the beginning of March, Ukraine has supplied only 68 tons to Russia (in April - 1,483 tons). At the same time, the fall in prices led to a significant increase in exports, in 15 days of May 11.5 thousand tons were exported, while exports in April made 15.2 thousand tons. The white sugar transit by the Russian railway decreased, from the beginning May only 11.3 thousand tons were delivered including 9.1 thousand tons from Ukraine and 2.3 thousand tons from Belarus supplied to Kazakhstan. Ukrainian transit mainly went to Azerbaijan (4.9 thousand tons) and Tajikistan (2.7 thousand tons).

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According to the analysis of customs declarations of FCS conducted by Sugar.Ru, in March 2019 Russia has exported 86.6 thousand tons of beet pulp. According to the results of 3 months of beet pulp export campaign, Russia has shipped out 296.1 thousand tons (in 2018 - 364.9 thousand MT; in 2017 - 245.6 thousand MT). In the period January - March 2019, the main countries importers of beet pulp from Russia were LATVIA (28.51%) and NETHERLANDS (22.17%).

UKRAINE

By May 13, 2019 sugar beet was sown on an area of 218 thousand hectares, which is 89% of the forecast, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Even according to a very pessimistic forecast, given the large amount of precipitation, around 10.0 - 10.5 million tons of sugar beet may be received solely from the area sown as of today (proceeding from the lowest yield and sugar content in raws for the last three years, respectively, 47.5 MT/ha and 16.2%) and to produce, respectively, up to 1.3 - 1.35 million tons of refined sugar, which fully meets the needs of the domestic market for the season 2019/2020 MY.

KAZAKHSTAN

By May 16, 2019, the sowing of sugar beet in Kazakhstan was performed on an area of 17.6 thousand hectares out of 22.8 thousand hectares planned (in 2018, 15.6 thousand hectares out of 21.5 thousand hectares), the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported to Sugar.Ru.

Sugar.Ru

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