Sugar price monitoring data by and news from Ukraine and Belarus, Jun 14, 2018

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According to price monitoring data for the period from 07.06.2018 to 14.06.2018 the US dollar rate increased by 1.8% (on 07.06 - RUR 62.01/$, on 14.06 - RUR 63.12/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 0.80 RUR/kg (-2.29%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 1.20 RUR/kg (-3.56%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0.022 /kg (-3.90%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0.028 /kg (-5.16%).

Over the past week, wholesale prices for sugar remained stable. Last week or two, there was a practice when companies declare one price, but actually they sell cheaper by RUR 1/kg, or even more. This trend confirms indirectly the availability of sufficient stocks from sugar producers, and their desire to sell the balances before the new season, without bringing the price down. The working price range for self-delivery in Krasnodar and central part: RUR 32.00-32.50/kg, by railway transport about RUR 32.50/kg, for large volumes the price drops to RUR 32/kg. It should, however, take into account the shortage of railcars for transportation of sugar, the delivery by rail may linger up to 4 weeks.

The export-import balance of white sugar in 9 months of current sugar season (August'17 - April'18) shows an excess of exports over imports of 371.5 thousand tons. In the remaining three months, we estimate the export and import of Russian sugar, each - at an average of 20 thousand tons per month, so that the final balance is not affected. These volumes are not enough to take out the surplus of sugar in current season from the Russian market, so in the next season we will enter with carryover stocks higher about 150-200 thousand tons compared to what we had stepping into 2018. The current condition of sugar beet crops suggests that the harvest will be less than last year, but still with a surplus, provisional estimate shows about 6.20 - 6.25 million tons in refined sugar equivalent. This means that at some point the price of sugar will drop to the parity export price this or next season, which now stays around US$ 370/MT (RUR 23/kg excluding VAT) basis EXW, or slightly higher, given the convenient logistics of Russian sugar supplies to Central Asia and Azerbaijan. The experience gained in current season suggests that exports should grow gradually, which means that this condition can last several months, beginning in October 2018, when companies will completely fill up warehouses with sugar of a new crop.


Duty-free quotas for export of sugar to the EU (18121.35 tons), other sugars (12,720 tons) and sugar syrups (2,000 tons) remain almost unused In January-April 2018, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reports.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, farmers sowed 282,000 hectares of sugar beet (down by 10% vs. 2017). According to estimates of the Kyiv office of the US Agriculture Ministry (FAS Kyiv), the forecast for sugar beet production for 2018/19 MY was reduced to 12.9 million tons (-11% compared to the previous MY), and the sugar production forecast was reduced to about 2.1 million tons; the forecast of potential export - decreased to 730 thousand tons.


According to Belstat, the average consumer price for granulated sugar was 1.53 BYR / kg in April (47.81 rubles / kg at the current rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation).



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