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RUSSIA
The result of implementing the doctrine of food security is that Russia has reached 89% of self-supply with refined sugar, said Olga Garshina, the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture.
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In the period June 20-26, 2017 the consumer sugar prices increased by 1.6%, from the beginning June - by 3.8%; and from the beginning of the year - decreased by 6.1%, according to Rosstat.
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According to Sugar.ru price monitoring for the period from June 22, 2017 to June 29, 2017, the dollar rate fell by -0.8% (on June 22 - 60.00 rub/$, on June 29 - 59.54 rubles/$). The ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar increased by RUR 3.20/kg (+7.67%), the Krasnodar wholesale price increased by RUR 2.30/kg (+5.54%). The US dollar wholesale price for sugar increased by $ 0.059/kg (+ 8.49%) in Moscow and by $ 0.044 / kg (6.36%) in Krasnodar.
The wholesale price continues to grow in all regions, somewhere reaching, and somewhere exceeding the resistance level of 42.5-43.0 rubles per kilo predicted by us. Seems our forecast was too optimistic. The growth of wholesale prices is so significant that here and there the reports from several regions state a massive purchase of sugar in chain stores by wholesalers. A number of companies sold all their sugar and left the market before the new harvest, the remaining companies offer sugar from a limited number of factories and the delivery dates may delay for a month. Almost all market participants tend to think that there is not enough sugar.
The reason may be an increase of sugar consumption, which resulted from a sharp rise in prices for all goods back in 2015, as well as a decline in the overall standard of living of the population, although the TV is trying to convince us otherwise. A quick survey of confectioners has not yet confirmed the increase in sugar consumption by the confectionery industry, sugar-containing cheap products started to sell more, but due to the general decline of the purchasing capacity of the population, the total consumption of sugar by the confectionery plants has not increased. Rosstat reports a significant increase in yeast production in 2015, the figures of official Russian statistics can be treated skeptically, but they may indicate an increase of moonshine production by home brewers. Whether the hypothesis of an increase in consumption is true will become clear at the beginning of the new season, until now we will refrain from categorical statements.
As we wrote in our previous market survey, the export of expensive Russian sugar continues to decline. While the monitoring does not show any decrease in sugar shipments to the regions, still it is significantly higher than the level of the previous year, for the first half of 2016 the regions received 260 thousand tons, while in 2017 – already 321 thousand tons. Where did this "extra" sugar go, whether it is in the regions in anticipation of the agitation by the end of the season, or whether it was taken to Kazakhstan, is currently unclear.
KAZAKHSTAN
According to the Federal Customs Service data analysis conducted by Sugar.Ru; the volume of trade of Kazakhstan with countries outside Customs Union in January-May 2017 has reached the following levels: the export of sugar (HS 1701) amounted to 5 041.4 tons (in 2016 - 118.2 tons), almost all of it went to Tajikistan. Imports of sugar have made 51.0 thousand tons of raw sugar from Brazil (in January-May 2016 – 168.0 thousand tons.).
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