Sugar price monitoring data by Sugar.ru and news from Kazakhstan, Oct 04, 2018

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RUSSIA

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of October 3, 2018, sugar beet was harvested from an area of 569.6 thousand hectares or 51.4% to the crop acreage (in 2017 - 570.3 thousand hectares).

According to sugar.ru price monitoring data for the period from 27.09.2018 to 04.10.2018 the US dollar rate dropped by -0,5% (on 27.09 - RUR 65,76/$, on 04.10 - RUR 65,42/$). Ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by 0,30 RUR/kg (-0,77%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by 1,70 RUR/kg (-4,47%). US dollar Moscow wholesale price for sugar dropped by $0,001 /kg (-0,17%), Krasnodar wholesale price dropped by $0,023 /kg (-3,98%).

Last week, wholesale sugar prices dropped slightly. This does not look like a fall, rather a correction after a sharp rise. Further decline of prices is objected by the news from the fields. The further we go the lower and lower drops the estimation of future white sugar production in the season, and the previous forecast of 5.8 million tons does not seem too pessimistic.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the current season, 1108.9 thousand hectares of sugar beet are to be harvested. As of October 3, the total area harvested has made 569.6 thousand hectares with an average yield of 35.47 MT/ha, i.e. in the ideal case it’s about 39 3 million tons of sugar beet will be harvested. As of October 1, the volume of beet collected has made 20.2 million tons. According to the data of Rossahar, as of October 1, total 12.7 million tons of beets were processed with 1.84 million tons of beet sugar manufactured. On October 1, the average sugar production yield was 15.27%, so if we assume that all the remaining beet (in our case – 26.6 million tons) will eventually be processed with the current yield of sugar, this will add another 4.06 million tons of refined sugar, hence, the upper estimate of seasonal production will be 5.8-5.9 million tons, plus about 50 thousand tons of sugar derived from molasses. Beet losses this year should be lower than in the past a priori, first, the yield is lower, secondly, the capacity of the plants has increased, and thirdly, plants with a large sugar beet zone started early processing, it is more profitable than to work in December with beet digestion about 10%. Thus, it is possible to provisionally estimate the seasonal sugar production of around 5.8 million tons, a further adjustment will depend on the weather.

According to sugar.ru railway monitoring, Russia has imported 11.5 thousand tons of sugar in September 2018 (in August - 12.9 thousand tons), all – from Belarus. The export of white sugar by railcars amounted to 17.5 thousand tons, which slightly exceeds the exports of August - 15.1 thousand tons). Most of the exports went to Kazakhstan (13.7 thousand tons), and a significant amount of sugar was sent to Uzbekistan (1.4 thousand tons by Pokrovsky Company) and Azerbaijan (2.0 thousand tons, by Prodimex)

KAZAKHSTAN

White sugar in the composition of finished products will be exempt from import duties until January 1, 2019 if is supplied to Kazakhstan in the framework of special investment contracts, according to a draft governmental decree. The draft resolution will be open to public discussion till October 17.

According to Statkom of Kazakhstan, the producer price of white sugar (excluding excises and VAT) increased by 0.01% and amounted to 161309 Tenge/MT in September 2018, which makes RUR 29460.19/MT (at the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by the middle of the reporting month).

Sugar.Ru

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